The defending champion Denver Nuggets currently sit at 43-20 after Thursday night’s win against Boston, a game behind first place Oklahoma City. Now 7-1 since the all-star break, they appear to be picking up the pace and rounding into playoff form. While not the number one priority for the remaining 19 games, taking first in the west and securing home-court through the conference finals still remains an important aspiration for the mile-high city’s squad, where they went 10-1 in last year’s romp through the playoffs. After several high-profile wins against contending teams on national tv over the last few weeks (and one sloppy loss), and a season sweep over the oddsmakers’ favorite to hoist the O’Brien in June, one has to wonder which, if any, team in the west seems capable of taking them out in a seven game series.
With the 10 playoff teams seemingly set in the west, and nearly any combination of those teams matching up in a series still possible, those ten teams could all possibly have a shot at the champs. The seriousness of their threat, however, varies. Here the Western Conference playoff teams are graded on how serious of a threat they have appeared to be to the Nuggets thus far this season.
The Lakers
Lebron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers have had their share of up and downs since last-year’s trade deadline. One constant however, has been the Nuggets having their number. Every game has been close, and every game has resulted in a Nuggets victory. This would seem to indicate two things. One, the Nuggets are simply a better team. And two, the gap isn’t significant. As things stand, it is hard to imagine the Lakers eliminating the Nuggets in a seven game series. But the playoffs are an unforgiving time where the unexpected can happen. Jamal Murray has been battling injuries all season, the Nuggets bench is untested, Michael Porter Jr. can be inconsistent, Jokic has looked human in more games this year than it feels like he has the last three years combined.
One would imagine as the focus tightens in the playoffs these issues would subside, but Lebron still remains capable of dictating the flow of the game and can exude complete mastery over how the offense operates.If the Lakers can stabilize their rotations (Darvin Ham) and get consistent execution on both ends, a series between these two teams could end up being closer than one might initially think. After some chirping following last year’s championship parade, Lebron vowed that “there will be a time” to answer. Will he be shown to be a man of his word?
Threat to Nuggets: B
The Warriors
The once mighty Warriors have been dismissed as of late, struggling through the earlier part of the season, and dealing with highly visible issues concerning their defensive cornerstone Draymond Green. However, they are 13-5 since the start of February and, lest one forget, have been good enough to win a championship as recently as two years ago. That run to the finals started with a first-round clash with the Nuggets, which the Warriors took in five games.
Jokic was the best player on the floor that series (in part at least because Steph was returning from injury, coming off the bench, and didn’t have to go nuclear for the Warriors to win) and that would likely be the case in another matchup this year. If you remember what Anthony Davis was able to do on offense against the Warriors in the second round last year, imagine the havoc Jokic will wreak. They have no answer for him. To be fair, no one really does, but they especially don’t. Green will try his usual borderline tactics (which have frustrated Jokic in the past) and get away with an aggression no one else in the NBA is allowed to exhibit, but the reigning Finals MVP seems to have developed enough self-control to swat the pesky Green.
The bigger question is on the other end of the court. When the Warriors beat the Nuggets in 2022, they blitzkrieged the Denver defense. As hard as Jokic was for Golden State to stop, the Nuggets were just helpless against the speedy, elusive, sharpshooting offense the Warriors employed. They shot 42% from three and averaged 118 points a game. However, the Nuggets have revamped their defense, both with the addition of KCP and finally figuring out a scheme to protect against putting Jokic in a pick and roll. Golden State isn’t as good as they were in 2022, and Denver is much better. The Warriors still have that championship pedigree, and with a talent like Steph Curry on the roster it would be unwise to dismiss their chances, but it is hard to see the Nuggets dropping a rematch if given the opportunity.
Threat to Nuggets: C+
The Mavericks
The Kings
The Mavericks and Kings seem to be in similar boats, and those boats are leaky due to a number of holes each team has on defense. They can score. Sacramento has speed, Dallas has Doncic, they both give up over 118 points per game. Luka has shown he can step up and shine brightest on the bigger stage the playoffs offer. Dallas has only won two playoff series since drafting Luka, both in 2021. They missed the playoffs last year. Sacramento famously reached the playoffs for the first time in 16 years last year. The Warriors beat them in the first round, and they haven’t been as good this year. Denver is capable of stepping up and slowing down dynamic offenses. Neither Sacramento or Dallas appears capable of stopping Denver. It is hard to imagine either team getting the best of Denver.
Threat to Nuggets: C-
The Suns
The Phoenix Suns upended their roster construction last year, getting rid of a formula that had brought both overachievement in the 2021 run to the Finals, as well as disappointment in the blown 2-0 Finals lead, loss to the Mavs in 2022, and getting blown out at home in their final game of each of the last two playoffs. By rather large margins. Chris Paul was shipped off to Washington in exchange for Bradley Beal, and their new big three hasn’t managed to stay on the court at the same time. The Suns should be able to score, and while not a defensive juggernaut, they look competent on that end of the court.
Phoenix is the only team to beat the Nuggets since the all-star break, and took twice as many games (ok, still only two) as anyone else could off the Nuggets in their championship run last year. Of course it took historically incredible shooting from Devin Booker, normal incredible shooting from Kevin Durant, and two games at home for them to be able to do it, but therein lies Phoenix’s chance. They have Kevin Durant, an all-time great still producing at an all-time level, and Booker, who has played very well in the playoffs, and has shown he can put the ball in the hoop as well as anyone.
In the victory against the Nuggets this week, Phoenix was up 22 in the third-quarter, largely because the Nuggets appeared uninterested. They then turned it around to tie the game and send it to overtime. They looked much better than the Suns. It looked like Denver was going to pull it off. Phoenix won by ten. Why? Because they had Kevin Durant, and he cooked.
The Nuggets are extremely good in close games. Very few teams can match their ability to score nearly every time they have the ball with the Jokic-Murray two man game. Phoenix just might be one of those team with their two superstars. If they can stay healthy, they should have enough on offense to score. Jurkic is strong enough to guard Jokic, and knows his game pretty well. The Suns will have to shoot well across the board, and are heavily reliant on their two closers to close well.
The Suns might have the talent to compete with the Nuggets. It remains to be seen if they will have the cohesion. Denver is such a well-oiled machine. Everyone knows their role. The Suns simply haven’t had much time to put it together, and don’t have much time to gel before the playoffs start. In the grinder of the postseason, will they play an offense greater than the sum of its parts? Or will it result in iso turn taking, getting the ball to Durant or Booker and relying on them to get a basket? There just may not be enough time left for them to figure it out.
Threat to Nuggets: A-
The Pelicans
The Thunder
While the Oklahoma City Thunder appear to be a better team overall than the New Orleans Pelicans, the threat they pose, or don’t pose to the Nuggets seem to be similar. Both are on the younger side, especially The Thunder, and they are also lacking playoff experience on the roster. They currently sit first in the West, and have the highest margin in the conference, outscoring opponents by 7.6 ppg. The Thunder have lost six games at home all year. They won’t be an easy out. But they have never played a playoff game together.
Teams rarely are able to organically make the jump from non-playoff team to true contender in one season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is rightfully included in the MVP discussion, and is second in the league in scoring, but averages 9 free-throw attempts per game. Free throws account for a quarter of his points scored. Recent high-scoring players dependent on free throws have not been able to put up the same numbers in playoff basketball (see James Harden and Joel Embiid.) The Thunder’s youth and energy has resulted in a lot of wins thus far, but would seem to be a huge disadvantage against the poised and intelligent Nuggets.
New Orleans has looked like the best team from the group of six competing to stay out of the play-in. They have posted a margin of +5.2, which is actually ahead of both the Nuggets and Clippers. The Pelicans have more playoff experience on their roster, and are able to score in multiple ways. They have length and size. On paper they should provide a challenge. They completely soiled the bed in the in-season tournament semifinal against the Lakers. The Lakers played well, but you don’t lose by 44 points in a game that matters without being a large contributor to your own demise.
If they couldn’t stand the bright lights of a neutral (ok, maybe that should be “neutral”) Las Vegas court for a single game, how will they maintain composure on the road in a hostile playoff environment? While they have playoff experience, led by CJ McCollum, their hopes ride on Brandon Ingram, who has played in six playoff games, and Zion Williamson, who has never suited up for the playoffs. Like the Thunder, the Pelicans should give anyone a tough series. Like the Thunder, a lack of experience and poise would make it difficult to beat the defending champs.
Threat to Nuggets: C+
The Clippers
The Clippers are another team that looks good on paper. The last time Kawhi was healthy for a playoff run, the Clippers were title favorites and lost a seven-game series to the Nuggets in the bubble after being up 3-1. Since then they have added Westbrook, Harden, and replaced Doc Rivers with Ty Lue. They should be a very good team. The problem with the Clippers is it is hard to trust a team dependent on Kawhi’s health and James Harden. That bubble run was four years ago. Kawhi hasn’t made it through a postseason since. James Harden’s playoff resume speaks for itself. Lue is a good enough coach that they will be dangerous regardless.
Denver seems to match up fairly well with them. They have KCP, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, and Peyton Watson and Christian Baun off the bench to throw at the Clippers large wing duo and Harden. The Clippers will probably be able to defend Denver better than most. If Kawhi stays healthy and Harden facilitates they would pose a legitimate threat. It just seems like we have seen this movie before, and it’s one of those times to expect the status quo until shown otherwise. If everything falls right for L.A., I would give what they have exhibited so far this season an A- as far as their threat to the Nuggets. But Kawhi’s injury history and the playoff history of every team Harden has led leads to a full letter grade being taken off.
Threat to Nuggets: B-
The Timberwolves
When Minnesota lured Tim Connelly away from Denver in the summer of 2022, he knew what was coming. His first move was ridiculed: the king’s ransom paid for Rudy Gobert. Last season did not do much to quell the concerns, and tumult at the end of the year perhaps cost them the opportunity to avoid the Nuggets in the first round. Alas, they wound up being the Nuggets first victim. Given how the series went, perhaps they would have fared better if they were able to play them later on in the playoffs. Denver outscored Minnesota by 44 points in the first six quarters of the series. For the rest of the series, the two teams were actually dead even in points scored overall.
Minnesota has more of one thing than any other team in the West: size. With Gobert as the centerpiece, Minnesota has been the best defensive team overall in the NBA this year. And they were put together specifically to beat the Nuggets. Their size gives them that chance. They have size on the inside, they have size on the wing, they have size on the bench. Gobert’s presence warps an offense similarly to how Steph Curry’s presence can warp a defense. And Anthony Edwards looks every bit like the next big thing. He competes on both ends, and usually wins. His iso ability has been a double-edged sword.
On one hand, he tends to iso too much at the end of clutch games, looking for his own shot, and then missing more than he should for that to be effective. Minnesota does not score the ball well at the end of close games. On the other hand, his ability to go get a shot on his own is instrumental against the Nuggets, who are perhaps the best defensive team in the NBA in late game situations with their suffocating team defense. When you have one guy looking to get his own shot, particularly from the perimeter, he just has to beat the one guy, instead of running action, which brings multiple defenders into the picture. It then just becomes a matter of how good has Edwards actually become?
The Towns injury has put a huge damper on the season Minnesota is having. His ability to space the floor as a big is key to their playoff hopes against Denver (his ability as an all-star player is key to their playoff hopes overall, but in particular against Denver his shooting at his size is paramount). A knee surgery and a minimum of a month out are devastating. Even if he gets back to the court by the end of the first round, how long will it take him to regain form?
Let’s be optimistic and assume he comes back fully healthy in the playoffs and is able to get back to himself within one round. This means Minnesota would need to avoid the Nuggets until the conference finals. This would almost certainly be the case if they finish with the top seed, and then they would get to host as well. That may be a lot to ask without Towns, and with the same record as the Nuggets, currently a game behind OKC. But perhaps the biggest question of all is how will the defense of Rudy Gobert hold up in the playoffs?
The Jazz were once a formidable regular season team, led by the interior defensive presence of Gobert. The Clippers made him almost unplayable by going small and playing five out. The Nuggets obviously won’t go small, but Jokic still plays at the top of the key. If Gobert guards Jokic he will be pulled away from the paint. If they put Gobert on Gordon, he will move out to the perimeter as well. Minnesota can probably live with Gobert helping off Gordon and giving him open threes, but then would presumably have Towns on Jokic. It feels like Jokic gets Towns in foul trouble every time they play, see above for why not having Towns would be problematic.
It is hard to envision how this series will go, which is a huge credit to Minnesota, given they played each other last year. If the Nuggets shoot well and keep Gobert outside, it probably goes Denver’s way. The Nuggets are certainly capable of shooting well. If Edwards levels up once again and finishes games for the Timberwolves consistently, and the Nuggets have a poor shooting series from one or two of their perimeter players, this could very well go to the Timberwolves. Of course if Towns can’t come back, this could all be a moot point anyway. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume he will. Tim Connelly probably knows this team better than anyone outside the Denver organization, and he bet the farm on the ability of Gobert to be the centerpiece of a team that could stop the Nuggets.
Threat to Nuggets: A